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Table 1 The probability and desirability of changes until the year 2020

From: Drugs foresight 2020: a Delphi expert panel study

  Probability Desirability
Drug use and use patterns   
The use of drugs is less common in 2020 than it is now. na
The use of drugs has diminished due to population ageing. ++
The use of psychotropic medicine as intoxicants is more common than the use of illegal substances. +
The use of new synthetic drugs is much more common in 2020 than it is now. +
Use cultures and modes of use are more distinct and separated in 2020 and multi-drug use is less common. |
Drug markets   
Drug prices decrease due to supply exceeding demand. |
Drugs and psychotropic medicine parly replaces alcohol drinking. – –
In 2020, drug import and wholesale is controlled by organized crime more than it is now. + na
Drug control   
Drug use and possession for own use is no longer illegal in 2020. |
Use and possession of cannabis is no longer illegal in 2020. | |
In practice, use and possesion of cannabis is no longer punished in 2020. | |
Home growing cannabis for own use is no longer punishable in 2020. | |
The amount of designer drugs diminishes considerably due to new legislation speeding up their classification as illegal. ++
The Police no longer needs a court order to access telecommunications of suspected drug dealers. | |
A prison sentence due to drugs ordered by a court can be transformed into doing time in an intoxicant care institution. + +
Health, care and the care system   
A serious HIV epidemic has been experienced among injecting drug users by the year 2020. na
The use of psychotropic medicine as intoxicants causes more deaths in 2020 than now. + na
Harm reduction has led to implementing use rooms for injecting drug users. – – |
A substitution therapy has been implemented widely for amphetamine addiction. | +
Resources in drug therapy have been focused in medicinal therapy. |
Injecting drug users can be forced involuntarily to therapy in 2020.
Under-aged drug users can be forced involuntarily to therapy in 2020. | |
Drug therapy is offered almost entirely by the third sector. |
Drug therapy is offered almost entirely by primary health care services in municipalities. ++ ++
There are notably more combined mental health and drug addiction care units in municipalities in 2020. + +
Access to mental health care, including medication, has improved considerably in 2020, and this has diminished drug use. ++
Attitudes toward drugs   
Drug use approval has widened in sports, business and cultural circles. + – –
The society is markedly more negative towards drugs and the consequences are more severe than now. | |
  1. Probability: "--" no-one agreed, "-" more than two thirds disagreed, " + " more than 2/3 agreed, "++" no-one disagreed.
  2. Desirability: "--" no-one held desirable, "-" more than two thirds held undesirable, " + " more than 2/3 held desirable, "++" no-one held undesirable.
  3. "|" no agreement on whether the issue is probable (desirable) or not probable (undesirable).
  4. "na" not applicable, was not asked.